QE, UK mining sector is improving

UBS said that the outlook for the UK mining sector is improving with quantitative easing (QE) measures now expected. The broker said: "QE triggers a return of capital flows to emerging markets, incentivising companiesto stop running for cash and embark on a commodity bullish restocking phase. As in the past, QE is likely to drive up commodity prices and in turn mining equities." Fresnillo, Vedanta, Rio Tinto and Kazakhmys were high risers early on. 

http://www.lse.co.uk/sharecast-news-article.asp?ArticleCode=20351350&ArticleHeadline=London_midday_Stocks_flat_ahead_of_another_busy_week

China: € 100 mrd voor infrastructuur

China heeft de afgelopen tijd nieuwe investeringsprogramma’s aangekondigd om de economische groei te stimuleren. Zo gaat het land onder meer 800 mrd yuan (€100 mrd) investeren in nieuwe metrolijnen en spoorwegen. De Chinese economie groeide in het tweede kwartaal met 7,6%, het laagste niveau in de afgelopen drie jaar.
http://fd.nl/economie-politiek/211620-1209/chinese-economie-onder-neerwaartse-druk?visited=true

goodbye PC

Intel said demand for chips used in business machines and orders in emerging markets are worse than expected, compounding concern that the PC market may not grow this year as consumers flock to smartphones and tablets.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/intel-cuts-third-quarter-sales-forecast-citing-weak-demand.html

the day before

The euro dipped against the dollar and European shares edged up on Wednesday with investors trading cautiously ahead of a European Central Bank meeting and a U.S. jobs report.

"We might not get all the details about the ECB bond buying plan tomorrow, but we know it's coming, so it's priced in. Now the question is: how bad is the situation in the U.S. economy? We'll get a better idea on Friday with the payrolls," David Thebault, head of quantitative sales trading, at Global Equities.
http://www.4-traders.com/news/Euro-edges-lower-ahead-of-ECB-meeting--14414117/?countview=0

ECB interventieplan

Draghi stuurt vandaag zijn plan naar alle ECB-bestuurders die hierover donderdag een besluit nemen. De ECB koerst er nu op aan dat de bank alleen bij grote paniek op de markten intervenieert. De eurolanden kunnen emissies van staatsobligaties vervolgens ondersteunen door een deel van het nieuw uit te geven papier op te kopen, zo is het idee.

De woordvoerder van Merkel zei maandag dat de Duitse regering het volste vertrouwen heeft dat de ECB de juiste keuzes zal maken. De regering mengt zich niet in het debat, want ‘alleen al de discussie daarover zou de onafhankelijkheid van de ECB al aantasten’.

De ECB heeft de afgelopen twee jaar al voor meer dan € 200 mrd aan staatsobligaties van Griekenland, Ierland, Portugal, Spanje en Italië opgekocht. 

http://fd.nl/economie-politiek/715662-1209/brede-steun-voor-ingreep-ecb?visited=true

“We have to be very careful that we don’t raise false expectations,” Schaeuble told Deutschlandfunk radio yesterday. “It has to remain very clear, state debt can’t be financed through monetary policy. Therefore we can’t have a decision --we would think it very wrong -- that’s not covered by the ECB mandate.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-03/merkel-says-bailouts-here-to-stay-as-schaeuble-warns-on-ecb.html

Morning, EU & UK trade update

The ECB will publish new economic forecasts on Sept. 6 that council member Ewald Nowotny has said are likely to revise down the outlook for growth.

Economists are divided on whether the ECB will cut interest rates further. 

The ECB shouldn’t rush fresh anti-crisis measures until governments demonstrate they’re willing to act as well to quell the turmoil, former ECB council member Athanasios Orphanides said in Jackson.

Draghi has an “opportunity” to hold back details of the ECB’s bond program, said Ed Lalanne, a strategist at Macro Risk Advisors in New York. “I don’t think there’s going to be a full plan.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-02/draghi-may-see-silver-lining-in-disappointing-investors.html

The UK manufacturing PMI has bounced sharply in August, rising to 49.5 from 45.2. The eurozone manufacturing sector contracted for the 13th month in a row in August.The manufacturing PMI for the whole eurozone rose to 45.1 from July's 37-month low of 44, according to the final data from Markit.

Business conditions worsened in most countries, with the exception of Ireland. Greece remained at the bottom of the league.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/sep/03/eurozone-crisis-live-global-slowdown-fears-rise

morning, china trade

In China, the Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49.2 in August from 50.1 in July, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said Sept. 1. It’s the first time in nine months that the measure has fallen below the 50 level that signals contraction.

An index of non-manufacturing industries released today showed an expansion to 56.3 in August from 55.6 the previous month.

China’s home prices rose 0.24 percent in August from a month earlier to 8,738 yuan ($1,377) a square meter, said SouFun, the country’s biggest real estate website owner, in a statement today.

A separate report released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed China’s manufacturing contracted last month at the fastest pace since March 2009.

China should “decisively” expand the strength of its policy fine-tuning based on economic developments and market changes, according to a front-page commentary published in China’s People’s Daily newspaper.

Hong Kong’s economy shrank 0.1 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe capped export demand. China’s slowdown is dragging on trade, weighing on confidence and encouraging the million of mainlanders who visit each month to spend less on luxury goods.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-03/asian-stocks-open-little-changed-on-u-s-stimulus-bets.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-02/hong-kong-recession-risk-may-rise-as-exports-falter-tsang-says.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-03/china-s-stock-futures-decline-after-manufacturing-deteriorates.html