vrijdag 21 juni 2013

Tanzanian growth at 7%

Tanzania's economy is expected to grow by 7% in 2013-14, but vulnerabilities remain, the IMF said.
Real gross domestic product grew by 6.9% in 2012 compared to 6.4% in 2011, the IMF said.
"Growth was driven by transport and communications, financial services, manufacturing and trade; it was supported by improved power supply," the fund said.

Estimates of Tanzania's gas reserves have shot up to 28.7 trillion cubic feet from 10 trillion cubic feet following new discoveries by Statoil ASA(>> Statoil ASA), Ophir Energy PLC (>> Ophir Energy Plc) and BG Group PLC (BG.LN), according to Tanzania's energy and minerals ministry.

Tanzania's risk of debt distress remains low, but the debt-to-GDP ratio has risen steadily over the past few years and fiscal policy will attempt to stabilize the debt ratio at about 45% in 2014-15, the IMF said.

In the absence of external shocks, the fund envisages a further decline in inflation to 7% by December and to the government's medium-term objective of 5% a year later, the fund said.

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vrijdag 7 juni 2013

Fed Seen Reducing Asset Buying by Smaller Amount

Economists cut their estimates for how much the Federal Reserve will reduce the amount of its monthly asset purchases, a Bloomberg survey shows.
Two of the 59 economists surveyed this week expect the pace of purchases to be reduced at the FOMC meetings on June 18-19 or July 30-31. Sixteen say tapering will begin at the Sept. 17-18 meeting, 14 see it happening Oct. 29-30 and 15 forecast the first tapering Dec. 17-18. Twelve see tapering next year or later.
“If jobs growth continues in the 150,000-to-200,000 per month range, that’s probably sufficient to lower the unemployment rateslightly,” said Tom Lam, chief economist at DMG & Partners Securities in Singapore. “Coupled with real GDP growth recovering to 2.5 percent, that would be sufficient for them to consider tapering modestly at the December meeting.”
“When the Fed does start to end QE, it will actually build confidence because it is another sign that the economy is getting better,” Paulsen said.

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vrijdag 17 mei 2013

Copper Climbs on Higher EU Auto Sales, Grasberg Disruption


Copper prices rose after European auto sales surprised the market with their first increase in 20 months, and as one of the world's largest copper mines remains shut following a fatal accident.

Copper prices advanced on the news as copper electrical wires, heating elements and tubing is widely used in automotive production, and the brighter data are considered a signal of stronger future demand for the industrial metal.

Copper prices are also drawing support from the work suspension following a fatal accident at Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.'s (FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The company halted output at the world's third-largest open pit copper mine to focus on the rescue of 25 workers trapped after an underground tunnel caved in on Tuesday.

Copper is widely used in everyday goods like cell phones, laptops and cars, and demand for these products tends to increase when consumers have more confidence in the economy.

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woensdag 8 mei 2013

UK car sales boom


Car sales jumped by almost 15% in April compared with the same month last year and are 9% higher in the first four months of 2013. Sales to individuals drove the numbers higher, with private sales up 32% compared with April last year.
Britons have been attracted by bargain deals on new cars, as well as attractive financing packages. Some motorists have also been prompted to buy more fuel efficient cars because of high petrol prices.
The health of the UK car market stands in sharp contrast to Europe, where sales slumped by more than 10% in March. Analysts were particularly concerned by a 17% decline in new car sales in Germany.

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dinsdag 7 mei 2013

China's Falling Inventories Hit Hopes for Economic Rebound


Fresh signs of falling inventories in China's factories are denting hopes that economic growth will rebound in the second quarter.
Data released in early May as well as comments from industry officials suggest companies are not rebuilding their stocks as they expect demand to fall. That indicates the economic juggernaut is unlikely to bounce in the near term, after its gross domestic product growth slowed to 7.7% on year in the first quarter from the preceding quarter's 7.9%.
In the details of China's official Purchasing Managers' Index -- a key gauge of manufacturing activity -- the sub-index indicating stocks of finished goods fell to 47.7 in April from 50.2 the previous month, while the sub-index measuring raw material stocks was at 47.5, unchanged from March. Both are below the 50-point level that separates expansion from contraction.

But while the overall view on the inventory front seems gloomy, there are spots of optimism.
Within the steel sector, Baosteel - which focuses on high-end products where demand is stronger -- said it had bulked up on raw materials. "Demand from autos, the ultra-high voltage grid, energy pipe network, and urban rail will remain strong this year," general manager Ma Guoqiang, told a news briefing on April 26.
An executive with Anhui Conch Cement Co., one of China's largest cement makers, said that restocking is likely in coming months. "The last round of destocking was basically done in April and the downstream demand is expected to rise as the peak season for construction is coming," she said, adding that cement prices were likely to rebound slightly.




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Real estate sales Italy plunged 26 percent last year


Real estate sales in Italy plunged 26 percent last year, according to Finance Ministry data. Residential transactions amounted to 88.1 billion euros, Scenari Immobiliari’s research showed.
House prices fell 4.6 percent in the last quarter of 2012 from a year earlier. They’ve dropped 12 percent in real terms from the 2008 peak, reaching levels last seen in mid-2004, according to Bloomberg calculations. Values are likely to fall another 5 percent this year, according to the real estate research unit of the Bologna-based Nomisma institute.
Foreign investment in Italian holiday properties is rising as Germans, Britons and Russians take advantage of a market where locals are struggling to purchase even a first home. Residential sales in the country dropped almost 26 percent last year amid a plunge in mortgage lending, almost two years of recession, and uncertainty surrounding a new tax on primary residences.
Second-home sales to buyers from abroad rose 14 percent last year, with non-Italians spending 2.1 billion euros ($2.8 billion), according to research institute Scenari Immobiliari. Germans, the biggest buyers since 2009, accounted for almost 40 percent of the transactions by foreigners, followed by the British at 18 percent and Russians with 13 percent.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-06/germans-splurge-on-italian-homes-locals-can-t-afford.html
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vrijdag 3 mei 2013

Eurozone recession expected to deepen


"Reduced business activity, possible spillovers from the restructuring of the banking sector to professional business services and the hiring freeze in the public sector are expected to push the unemployment rate higher in 2013 and more so in 2014," the commission said in its report, referring to the consequences of a bailout that included a raid on savers' deposits.
The spring forecasts underlined the stark contrasts between eurozone member states, with France becoming decoupled from Germany as the economic centre of the single currency bloc. The commission sees the German economy recovering gradually on the back of improving domestic demand, helped by a "robust labour market and more dynamic wage growth". GDP in France, however, is forecast to stagnate this year amid modest exports.

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